The Impact of Advanced Technologies on Future Smart Munitions
Explore how advanced technologies are revolutionizing smart munitions, enhancing precision, and raising ethical concerns in modern warfare.
- Precision and Accuracy: Modern weapons like JDAM systems hit targets within 35 feet, reducing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
- AI and Sensors: AI improves targeting, while advanced sensors like radar and thermal imaging ensure all-weather, day-and-night effectiveness.
- Cost Variations: Prices range from $5,000 for basic missiles to $1.5 million for advanced cruise missiles, with cheaper options like 3D-printed drones lowering costs.
- Autonomy: Swarm drones and autonomous systems transform battlefield strategies, even in GPS-denied environments.
- Ethical Concerns: Using AI in lethal systems raises questions about human control and accountability in warfare.
Quick Comparison of Smart Munitions Features
| Feature | Example Weapon | Key Capability | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Precision Guidance | JDAM | Hits within 35 feet | ~$25,000 |
| Autonomous Swarms | Airbus UAS Swarms | GPS-denied operation | Varies |
| AI Targeting | GBU-53 SDB II | Automatic target recognition | ~$250,000 |
| Minimal Collateral | AGM-114R-9X | Pinpoint, no explosion | ~$115,000 |
Smart munitions are advancing rapidly, but ethical and cybersecurity challenges must be addressed to ensure responsible use. Keep reading for a detailed breakdown of the technologies and their impact.
JDAM Smart Bombs: Advanced Precision Guided Munitions
Core Technologies in Smart Munitions
AI and Machine Learning Systems
AI and machine learning are reshaping the capabilities of smart munitions. Military spending on AI has surged, doubling from $4.6 billion in 2022 to $9.2 billion in 2023, and predictions estimate it will hit $38.8 billion by 2028 [4]. The U.S. military alone invests nearly $2 billion annually in AI development and an additional $1.7–3.5 billion in unmanned and autonomous systems [4].
These technologies improve navigation, sensor processing, and surveillance in weapons systems. They also allow for trajectory adjustments that help minimize unintended damage [1]. While AI enhances targeting and decision-making, advanced sensors provide crucial data for precise operations.
Sensor and Imaging Tech
Advances in sensor technology have revolutionized target acquisition and tracking. The global smart weapons market, projected to reach $24.16 billion in 2024, underscores the importance of these advancements [5].
Take Boeing's GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb as an example. This weapon showcases the integration of various sensor technologies:
| Sensor Type | Capability | Application |
|---|---|---|
| Millimeter-wave Radar | Detects in all weather | Tracks moving targets |
| Uncooled IR Imaging | Provides night vision | Detects thermal signatures |
| Semi-active Laser | Offers precision guidance | Engages point targets |
Raytheon's GBU-53 SDB II builds on this by combining thermal seeking and radar capabilities with automatic target recognition, making it effective even in challenging weather and lighting conditions [6].
Autonomous and Swarm Systems
Autonomous systems are taking smart munitions to the next level by integrating battlefield data for coordinated operations. In August 2024, Airbus Defence & Space demonstrated AI-powered swarms of seven unmanned aerial systems (UAS) operating effectively in GPS-denied environments [7].
Sven Kruck, Chief Revenue Officer of Quantum Systems, highlighted their practical value:
"We are not just interested in expanding the technological capabilities of our drones. We want to give customers and users a real advantage in real-life scenarios. Ultimately, it's about enhancing soldier safety. In the future, there will be no way around software-based and AI-supported systems for drone technology." [7]
These systems enable real-time integration of reconnaissance data through platforms like Airbus's "Fortion Joint C2" battle management system, improving tactical coordination and overall performance [7].
Military Impact and Changes
Accuracy and Damage Control
Modern smart weapons have brought a new level of precision to military operations. For example, JDAM systems can hit targets within 35 feet, compared to 75 feet for 1960s-era Paveway bombs [2]. This leap in accuracy significantly reduces civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Human Rights Watch even refers to precision-guided munitions as "the military's best means of minimizing civilian casualties" [8]. A prime example is the U.S. military's AGM-114R-9X "Flying Ginsu" Hellfire missile, which conducts pinpoint airstrikes without causing explosions [8].
| Weapon System | Accuracy Range | Key Feature |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s Paveway | Within 75 feet | Laser guidance |
| Modern JDAM | Within 35 feet | All-weather capability |
| AGM-114R-9X | Pinpoint | No explosion design |
This enhanced precision saves lives and reduces costs across various weapon systems.
Cost and Access
The cost of modern weapons varies widely:
- Tomahawk cruise missile: $1.5 million
- Javelin shoulder rocket: $147,000
- Hellfire rocket: $115,000
- APKWS II: $28,000
- F2M2 (Spike) missile: $5,000 [9]
Charlie Osborne highlights the potential for cost savings by using multiple lower-cost weapons instead of a single expensive one. For instance, replacing a $1.5 million missile with several $20,000 alternatives could drastically reduce budgets [9].
Advances like additive manufacturing are also driving down costs. In England, researchers have created prototype printed drones for just $9 each [10]. These lower costs make advanced munitions more accessible, even for smaller nations, enabling them to strengthen their military capabilities [9].
Global Military Balance
Technological progress in AI, sensors, and autonomy reshapes global power dynamics. Chinese naval researchers, for instance, have developed a Mach 7 smart shell with an error margin of less than 15 meters [11]. This builds on the U.S. Navy's earlier concept of a Mach 5 "dream shell" guided by GPS [11].
"Autonomous systems soon will be able to perform many of the functions historically done by soldiers, whether for intelligence analysis, decision support, or the delivery of lethal effects" [12].
Recent conflicts highlight these changes. In July 2024, Ukrainian forces used a commercial drone to destroy a Russian Mi-8 helicopter, showcasing how smart munitions are leveling the playing field in asymmetric warfare [3].
Risks and Ethics
Human Control vs AI
The rapid adoption of AI in smart weaponry raises serious ethical concerns about maintaining human oversight in combat scenarios. While 30 nations support a ban on fully autonomous weapons, the Non-Aligned Movement, representing 125 member states, calls for a binding international treaty to regulate lethal autonomous systems [14].
The core issue boils down to this: Should machines have the authority to make life-and-death decisions in warfare? Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt highlights the transformative nature of AI in this context:
"Every once in a while, a new weapon, a new technology comes along that changes things... I would argue that [AI-powered] autonomy and decentralized, distributed systems are that powerful." [13]
This level of technological power raises profound ethical concerns. Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg voiced a widely shared sentiment:
"We cannot allow machines to decide over human life and death." [14]
The International Committee of the Red Cross also points out a key accountability issue. Traditionally, investigations focus on the actions of the shooter and commanding officer. However, with autonomous systems, the chain of responsibility becomes far more ambiguous [13].
These discussions naturally extend to fears about controlling the proliferation and ensuring the cybersecurity of these advanced technologies.
Weapons Control
The ethical challenges of autonomous weapons are closely tied to broader security risks. Export controls are the primary mechanism for preventing unauthorized technology transfers. The U.S. is a participant in four major international control regimes [15]:
| Control Regime | Focus Area |
|---|---|
| Australia Group | Preventing chemical/biological weapons |
| Missile Technology Control Regime | Regulating missile systems |
| Nuclear Suppliers Group | Controlling nuclear technology |
| Wassenaar Arrangement | Governing conventional arms |
Cybersecurity adds another layer of complexity. DARPA's SABER project, launched in February 2025, focuses on identifying and addressing AI vulnerabilities in battlefield systems. Holly Rollins, Booz Allen Vice President, stressed the importance of this initiative:
"U.S. weapon and space systems must be secure and resilient. Analyzing cyber risks to missions can enable system owners and operators to effectively and cost efficiently mitigate these risks to the greatest extent possible. In addition, acquisition programs need to research how they might apply zero trust principles to outpace emerging threats." [17]
Cyberattacks pose several risks, including:
- Corrupting data through poisoning
- Stealing sensitive information
- Disrupting system functionality [16]
These risks are especially alarming as some Pentagon acquisition programs lack the tools to detect, monitor, or alert operators to cyberattacks [17]. With state and non-state actors increasingly turning to cyber warfare as a cost-effective strategy, addressing these vulnerabilities is more urgent than ever [16].
Next-Gen Smart Munitions
Advances in Technology
Smart munitions are making leaps with hypersonic delivery systems, AI-driven drone swarms, and increased autonomy.
Hypersonic weapons, capable of traveling over Mach 5 (about 1 mile per second), can deliver conventional or nuclear payloads at velocities ranging from 3,100 to 15,500 mph [20]. Bruce Blair, a nuclear security expert from Princeton University, highlights their strategic importance:
"The ability to easily circumvent enemy air defenses and deliver an accurate conventional weapon to a target anywhere on the planet within one hour would fill a big gap in current military capabilities. They will be capable of evading current missile defences and would result in hair-trigger responses" [20]
The Pentagon's Replicator initiative aims to deploy thousands of low-cost autonomous drones by August 2025 [18]. This cost-effective approach is stark when comparing traditional systems like the IRIS-T short-range SAM, priced at around $450,000 per unit, to modern attack drones such as the Shahed-136, which cost roughly $20,000 [18].
China has also made strides, unveiling the Jiu Tian "mothership" drone in November 2024. This 10-ton UAV can launch swarms of drones, reaching speeds up to 560 mph and covering a range of 1,200 miles. These advancements have driven substantial investments from top defense contractors.
Industry Perspectives
Raytheon secured a $345 million contract in January 2024 to produce over 1,500 StormBreaker smart munitions [22]. Paul Ferraro, President of Air Power at Raytheon, emphasized the system's growing role:
"Fielded on two platforms with testing underway for others, StormBreaker has solidified its place as the leading network enabled weapon across the Department of Defense. With this contract, we'll continue to evolve StormBreaker's production to meet the needs of servicemembers for years to come" [22]
Lockheed Martin has also been pushing forward, with developments including:
| System | Range |
|---|---|
| Extended-Range GMLRS | 93 miles |
| Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) | Over 250 miles |
| GMARS | NATO compatible |
In May 2024, Lockheed Martin was awarded a $451 million contract to upgrade M270 launchers. These updates include better-armored cabs and a new Common Fire Control System [21].
As global advancements in military technology accelerate, Vladimir Putin's words echo loudly:
"The nation that leads in development of AI would become ruler of the world" [19]
Conclusion
Main Points
Thanks to advanced technologies, smart munitions have improved significantly. For instance, JDAM systems now achieve accuracy within 35 feet, compared to 75 feet in earlier versions [2]. However, high-end munitions cost nearly $1 million per unit [2]. Programs like DARPA's EXACTO showcase how miniaturization and sensor fusion advancements are pushing targeting capabilities even further [2].
"By leveraging high-reliability computing, advanced sensors, and guidance systems, these munitions can precisely identify and target enemies." [2]
Such progress demands both strategic planning and ethical considerations for future developments.
Next Steps
As smart munitions continue to reshape warfare, defense leaders must balance rapid technological progress with ethical responsibility.
"There has always been a tension in defence between taking sufficient time to consider the ethical implications of new technologies, and deploying their capabilities quickly and decisively enough to maintain the advantage over adversaries." [23]
Future priorities include:
| Focus Area | Strategic Objective |
|---|---|
| Computing Power | Enhance miniaturization capabilities |
| Cost Reduction | Adopt remote telemetry solutions |
| Autonomous Systems | Integrate UAS and MUM-T features |
| Ethical Framework | Establish clear AI guidelines |
Defense organizations are also responsible for developing countermeasures for drone swarms and fostering diversity in computer and data science fields to improve AI design and ethical oversight [3] [23]. The next phase of smart munitions aims for precision beyond simply reducing the blast radius, allowing for targeted operations in complex environments while ensuring responsible innovation [2].
